2009- The year of Ubuntu

I've been patient with Windows. Letting myself boot into Vista every now and then. However off late I've switched primarily to Linux- specifically Ubuntu. As it turns out I'm not the only one making the switch. Mr. Dvorak (of the PCMag fame) also likes Linux.


These are some very interesting times. The play-field is relatively leveled. People are willing to do more to save and they do expect more for their money than ever before. Everything from operating and switching costs to the growing phenomenon of moving your applications, and content (documents, media, etc.) to the "cloud" is going to effect what happens this year. And it is because of these interesting times that I predict that 2009 will be a significant year in establishing Ubuntu as the operating system of choice. Here is my reasoning.

A fresh look at Ubuntu

First let's talk a bit about Ubuntu itself- I'm not going to spend any effort convincing you about how reliable, secure and efficient life has become with Ubuntu, or how far we have come in making Ubuntu a solid platform. This is something you need to experience yourself.

Switching costs
A very important part of reducing the switching cost is the Live CD concept which allows you to try out a full fledged installation of Ubuntu on your hardware without having to install anything. Don't like it (and that would be very unlikely) then you can reboot to your usual. Like it but not sure- you can continue to work with booting from the CD. Like it enough but not sure if you are ready to switch, you can dual-boot your machine to allow you to boot to Ubuntu or your other operating system. Love it? Then a fairly easy installer helps get it up and running on your machine.

The other side of the story is the negative switching costs of moving away from Windows. If you are going to miss your Windows specific software then you might be in for some surprises on that front. One might argue that the familiarity with the operating system is worth staying with it- but there is a fascinating and unintended acceptance of mediocrity that you won't realize till you experience an alternate operating system. Do try other things out and if you still prefer your malware-susceptible, crashing-every-so-often operating system then hey at least you tried.

Operating costs
One of the most impressive features of Ubuntu is its ability to work with fairly modest hardware. This is quite an unusual contrast when you look at the requirements of Vista (or even Windows 7) This is an important factor to consider- you may not have to buy a new machine just to get a better experience. Additionally I've often heard the argument of lack of support/knowledge when running a Linux based system. Trust me- we've come a long ways from the days of help files. There is active support and tons of help online for Ubuntu starters. Plus an important part of this is really in the switching- once you know, you'll know.

Your other choice

I'd like to address this part specifically to the users of Windows. I used to be one (and I still do boot to Windows once in a while) so I do understand where you are coming from (but I honestly want to show you where you could go- without relying on a company's tagline of "where do you want to go today?") I really have tried to be super patient with Vista- trying everything from "smart tips" to improve its reliability, to adding a SD card to improve the bootup time (which BTW didn't change as much; but my shutdown time certainly became over 2 minutes!)

The problem I have with Windows is that at this stage I'm too tired to wait for the OS patches, and the security holes to be fixed. I've been a Windows user for long enough to expect more reliability, less crashes and I want that now- not in the next version or an update. The last straw for me was mostly the incessant hangs (and the option of "downgrading" to Windows XP for an additional cost!)

Pricing was one of my most favorite subjects in MBA. And so it pains me that much more when I read that Windows 7 will be offered in 6 different versions (who was the genius behind this one!?!) The "Starter" version offers the ability to run a whopping 3 applications simultaneously. Yes I'm not kidding. And the other end of that spectrum- a "secure" version since the low-end cheap users can afford not be secure.

But what about a Mac?

Mac is a fine option as well but it's not a cheap option. If you can afford it then paying for the looks may just as well be your cup of tea. And as far as I can tell- there isn't an option to try a Mac out- you either sell your whole hearted commitment to Apple or you don't. I'd have loved to point out other comparisons here but really, Mac is a fine choice if it's affordable.

Evolution of our needs

There is also another important factor- the real requirements of what we expect from an operating system has evolved significantly over the last few years. I remember back in 1997 or so there was an effort by Sun in pushing a network appliance/computer (I forget the exact name) that really was a Mac Airbook (without the sexy looks or the laptop part) I think that idea failed mainly because it was a bit ahead of its time. The network speeds and reliability were just not that commonly available as they are today. And neither were such cool options as Google Apps. Today you can actually get by with just a reliable connectivity. There is increasing effort by several key providers to allow more network storage, and to break free from being tied to a specific hardware.

Challenges

Where we go from here depends on several things- and some of them could present us with some interesting challenges to solve. But I do feel that none of these challenges will take a long time to overcome and so I do believe that this is truly the time when Ubuntu will shine.

Other distros

One of the significant problems with Linux adoption has been the choice of distributions that have been available. A few years back (when the going was all good and the Internet bubble was still growing), RedHat had a real shot at emerging as that leader. In my mind RedHat is now totally off the contenders list. While Fedora is a solid distribution in itself- it is not going to be sufficient in recovering the true Linux market-share. Never before has a distribution caught so much attention as Ubuntu. Here is the proof- Take a quick guess at which color indicates which distro (from amongst Fedora, Ubuntu and Debian) in this chart-

Confirm your answer with the Google trend on this url or by clicking on the chart.

If there ever was a time for the Linux effort at large to really make a difference, this would be it. And if we have to do it right, then the distraction from other distros needs to be minimized. It's important for open source software architects, evangelists to unify their efforts with Ubuntu. Linux has spent several years trying on several faces- this one fits and looks good. Now it's important to stay with it.

Malware catchup

An interesting concern (primarily of the lag in supply and demand) is of the what-if scenarios with malware. While no operating system can completely protect you from a malware, Ubuntu has so far proven to be really secure. It's possible that in the next few years the demand for Ubuntu increases malware development but it's also rather unlikely a platform for that. And that's fundamentally because of it's open architecture. More likely than a malware emerging on Ubuntu, is its fix. Thanks to a rather vigilant and active community of Ubuntu users, application developers and volunteers. The same can not be said about Windows.

Other stuff that could go wrong?
While we all hope that things would turn out for the better, there are some interesting possibilities that might hamper my prediction for Ubuntu. These include- The possibility of Windows 7 being so kick-ass that it does renew the faith of staying with it. The possibility that one of the other Linux distros canabalizes Ubuntu's market share. Or even the possibility that 2009 releases of Ubuntu would suck! Given the looks of what 9.04 is shaping up to be, I'd have to bet that it's unlikely.

I still hold that 2009 would be the year of Ubuntu.